Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Recession forecast from a cab ride in NY? Fuggeddaboutit!

Recession? I got the following email from one of my job boards that I check daily. Mark has an interesting premise where he is attempting to judge the economic forecast by the spending habits of the 'money people.' I thought you might enjoy.
-Taylor

A foreboding Monday morning Scott!

It was about 5 o’clock in midtown Manhattan and I was desperately looking for a taxi to get to a meeting in Greenwich Village when signs of the impending recession landed on my head the way the coming of the robins announces the spring.

Four–thirty p.m. is changeover time in Manhattan. All the taxis light their “off duty” signals and head for the home garage, which makes it difficult to get anywhere in a hurry at the end of the day.

So I was relieved when the driver of one black Town Car – so prevalent in New York streets and “Sex in the City” re–runs – pulled up and rolled down his window.

I’m used to negotiating with these guys. This was probably a $15 ride in a yellow cab, but the black cars will usually ask for $35.

I figured I’d offer $20 and haggle my way to $25.

So I was shocked when he offered “Bank and West Fourth? Twenty bucks.”

“That’s pretty odd,” I thought. But then I got in.

Drivers like to chat. It’s a staple of conventional wisdom and Hollywood movies that the musings of the wizened, world–weary driver are worth more than all the high–priced consultants and fancy lawyers you can hire.

“Tough year, man, so far…” he said over his shoulder.

“Oh yeah?” I asked.

“Yeah, none of them big firms are hiring us. It’s dead. That’s why I’m doing street hails.”

And that’s when it hit me, folks: the recession is really coming. When the financial services and law firms are announcing write–downs and lay–offs and, horror of horrors, they start to economize on expenses, that’s when the crimp has really hit the fan belt.

Cheapo town cars on the streets of Gotham mean one thing for you, Readers: the economy is really slowing up, and it’s time for you to take action.


4 comments:

Teresa said...

Seriously? Oh Crimp!

Taylor said...

Seriously. I've got to get a job & just sit tight for a while. Work hard & make the man happy. Joblessness is getting old.

Kirk said...

Hey Taylor,

It’s funny you posted that story. As you know I work in the financial industry, and we see a recession on the horizon. Actually we foresee a “Stagflation” like the late 70’s and early 80’s.

Many people don’t remember or have been forgotten that for a time I drove limos on weekends. I did it for the extra cash. Fast easy money. Six to ten bills on a Fri and Sat nights.

A few years ago when we first started to go through this we noticed a pull back in the executive limos service. The next to drop off was the weekend pleasure cruise. So I totally believe that limo service and watching the spending habits of Wall Street professionals it a good indicator of good or bad times ahead.

~Cheers~

Tami Cromar said...

Hey world, the true definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Let's see what we get in March, then take it from there. The sky is not falling, but the clouds are rolling in.